FADE THE CHALK

Model % = what the numbers say. Fair = the odds that % deserves. Robinhood = the Kalshi/Robinhood ask for his home run market, shown as American odds (a 22¢ contract = +355); hover for Fliff's price. FL = no Robinhood market, Fliff's price shown; UD = Underdog; * = best sportsbook price; hover for the best price and any line move; ▲ = shortened since the morning pull). Type over it if Fliff shows you something different. Edge = model % minus the book's implied %. Heat = how crowded the bet is: name recognition + hot streak + narrative, then adjusted by two live signals once odds are flowing: line movement (price shortened since the morning pull = money came in) and book skew (DraftKings / FanDuel / MGM pricing him shorter than Bovada / BetOnline = retail crowd is on him). For MLB the Public column shows Kalshi: the prediction-market crowd's own price for him and how many dollars they've put on it; crowd above the model, heavy volume, or a rising price all raise Heat. Typing a real public-bet % overrides all of it.
SLEEPER = edge with low heat. VALUE = edge, some heat. TRAP = crowd on him, no edge. FADE = public 60%+ and negative edge. CHALK = hot name, no price entered. Result fills in as games go final and stays on the page with the crowd money, so hits can be checked against where the public was. Bet = tick to paper-bet him (stake in units, blank = 1u). It's scored on the Track page once the game is final, at the Book odds you typed, or at Fair if you typed none.