FADE THE CHALK

what the book needs · NFL · built 2026-10-29T18:05

For every NFL game: all the crowd’s money on Robinhood’s spread and moneyline, and what the book makes in each of the three results. The book keeps every losing bet and pays every winner’s profit. Book’s side = the spread bet that wins in the book’s best result. Board = the verdict on the Spreads page (fade the spread money). Green headline = the book wins only one way.

Season so far 68 graded games · book’s best result happened 30 (44%; chance ≈ 33%) · book net +$10.12M

Bet the book’s side when…Record1 unit each
Every game: bet the book’s side41-27+13.6u
Book wins only one way18-12+6.1u
Book wins unless one result23-15+7.5u
Primetime 🌙12-3+8.6u
Book’s side = the board’s pick38-23+14.7u
Book’s side ≠ the board’s pick3-4-1.2u

Small samples: a few weeks of games. A cross-check on the board, not a separate pick.