click a column to sort · click a row for the reasoning and every book's price
Pick = the side the model likes against Robinhood's price. Model = win chance for that side. Robinhood = what a $1 contract on that side costs right now (the ask), with the equivalent American odds; Robinhood's contracts are Kalshi's. Edge = model minus that price, in points; your fee is about a penny a contract, so +2 is real.
Public $ on pick = share of the Kalshi/Robinhood dollars on the pick side: over 65% is a crowded side. $ traded = total on the game. Fliff = the sportsbook price for reference.
Pinnacle = the sharpest book's de-vigged chance. Skew = retail books vs Pinnacle for the pick side: positive = retail shading toward it = public money. SLEEPER = edge ≥ 2 and under 60% of the money on it. VALUE = edge ≥ 2, crowded. FADE = 65%+ of the money on the other side and the model disagrees. TRAP = model says the price is 3+ points too short.
MLB model: regressed run-differential strength, starting-pitcher runs-allowed adjustment, home field. NFL model: last season's point differential (regressed) plus 2 points for home; weak until 2026 games exist, so lean on Pinnacle vs Kalshi there.