FADE THE CHALK

The prop rule. Main line = the strike priced nearest 50¢. BET = a player on the underdog (his team under 45% to win on Kalshi), with one of: RB rushing yards UNDER, QB rushing yards UNDER, TE receiving yards UNDER, QB passing yards OVER. That made +11.8% on 358 bets at the price at kickoff plus the fee, and it was positive in all 6 weeks (+3, +17, +21, +12, +4, +13%). It was found on weeks 1-4 and held on weeks 5-6, which weren't used to find it. The same four props on favorites were break-even, so they show as PASS. Edges are single digits per bet: it pays over many bets, not on one. Not a bet: first-TD and 2+ TD props (they lost 35-47% every week), overs in general (−9%), and our own projections vs the line (they lost at every threshold). For anytime TDs, use the BET / AVOID calls on the main board.

How to read it. Proj pts = projected fantasy points. It starts from his 2026 average, pulled toward the middle (early-season games are noisy), then nudged by what has held every week so far: players on the team with less of the crowd's spread money have beaten their average by about 2 points more than players on the crowd's team (running backs: about 12 more rushing yards); when the crowd's totals money is on the under, players have come in about 2 points and 8 receiving yards short; and the Matchup number is what the opponent has allowed to his position per game against the league (1.20 = 20% more, a soft matchup; 0.80 = a tough one). START / FLEX / SIT = his projected rank at the position (QB top 12, RB top 24 start / 36 flex, WR 30 / 42, TE 12 / 18). BOOM / BUST read only this week's situation (the money, the totals crowd, the matchup, the team total) against a normal week for the same player, so stars aren't tagged just for being stars. BUST = the situation puts him 1+ point below his normal: those players fell about 2.2 points short of it in every week so far (the most reliable tag here; usually the crowd's money is on his team and on the under). BOOM = 0.5+ above his normal: +1.3 on average, but only 2 of 4 weeks clearly positive, so a lean. RISING = his targets + carries over the last 2 games are 30%+ above his season rate: a waiver flag, not proven yet (only 37 players so far, about break-even). Your line: type the yardage line from your book (receiving yards for WR/TE, rushing for RB, passing for QB) and the page shows the chance of the over from the projection and how far real outcomes spread around it (about ±25 yards receiving/rushing, ±55 passing). It calls a lean only at 60%+. These are for fantasy, not betting: checked against Kalshi's real lines for weeks 3-4, betting wherever the projection disagreed with the price lost money. For yardage bets, use the Prop bets table above. Spread money moves until kickoff, so recheck close to the game. Finished weeks show the actual line and the scorecard below shows how each week's projections did (every week projected only from the weeks before it).