Model % = what the numbers say. Fair = the odds that % deserves. Robinhood = the Kalshi/Robinhood ask for his home run market, shown as American odds (a 22¢ contract = +355); hover for Fliff's price. FL = no Robinhood market, Fliff's price shown; UD = Underdog; * = best sportsbook price; hover for the best price and any line move; ▲ = shortened since the morning pull). Type over it if Fliff shows you something different. Edge = model % minus the book's implied %.
Heat = how crowded the bet is: name recognition + hot streak + narrative, then adjusted by two live signals once odds are flowing: line movement (price shortened since the morning pull = money came in) and book skew (DraftKings / FanDuel / MGM pricing him shorter than Bovada / BetOnline = retail crowd is on him). For MLB the Public column shows Kalshi: the prediction-market crowd's own price for him and how many dollars they've put on it; crowd above the model, heavy volume, or a rising price all raise Heat. Typing a real public-bet % overrides all of it. Model % for home runs is recalibrated from 2026-09-19 (open a row to see the raw number it came from). Home run verdicts (from Sept 28, 3,160 priced hitters): BET = his team is the favorite, he bats 1-4, he costs 8¢ or more, and his team has 65%+ of the moneyline money (19.3% homered against a 15.1% price). LEAN = other hitters on the favorite at 8¢+ outside slots 5-6 (about +21%). AVOID = his team is the underdog, he costs under 8¢, or he bats 5th or 6th (9.0% against 9.9%). PASS = no moneyline for his game yet. Touchdown verdicts (rebuilt Oct 16 on 958 priced player-games, weeks 2-6, scored at Robinhood's price plus 1.5¢ for spread and fee). The price itself is the best forecast: nothing else (position, primetime, team total, money on the player or the moneyline) predicted better out of sample. Where the price has been wrong, it has been wrong the same way every week: the market chases recent touchdowns. BET = he has not scored yet this season in 2+ games, his team has less of the crowd's spread money, and he costs under 35¢ (23.7% scored against a 17.6% cost, +37% on 152 bets; green in weeks 3, 4 and 5). AVOID = he scored earlier this season but blanked his last game (23.0% against 30.4%, -34%, red every week). LEAN = no touchdown yet in 2+ games, but no spread money to read yet. Retired: WR/TE on a crowd-backed favorite (break-even) and every primetime tight end (2 of 4 weeks). Hover a verdict for the reason; the Track page scores the new and old rules side by side. The old heat-based labels are retired: SLEEPER = edge with low heat. VALUE = edge, some heat. TRAP = crowd on him, no edge. FADE = public 60%+ and negative edge. CHALK = hot name, no price entered.
Result fills in as games go final and stays on the page with the crowd money, so hits can be checked against where the public was. Bet = tick to paper-bet him (stake in units, blank = 1u). It's scored on the Track page once the game is final, at the Book odds you typed, or at Fair if you typed none.